Working Paper No. 13-48 Natural Amenities, Neighborhood Dynamics, and Persistence in the Spatial Distribution of Income

We present theory and evidence highlighting the role of natural amenities in neighborhood dynamics, suburbanization, and variation across cities in the persistence of the spatial distribution of income. Our model generates three predictions that we confirm using a novel database of consistent-boundary neighborhoods in U.S. metropolitan areas, 1880–2010, and spatial data for natural features such as coastlines and hills. First, persistent natural amenities anchor neighborhoods to high incomes over time. Second, downtown neighborhoods in coastal cities were less susceptible to the suburbanization of income in the mid20th century. Third, naturally heterogeneous cities exhibit spatial distributions of income that are dynamically persistent.